Conflict: The study of warfare at its best

I was impatient to dive between the covers of General David Petraeus (retired) and Lord Roberts book, Conflict: The Evolution of Warfare from 1945 to Ukraine and saying I’m happy I did is a euphemism.

The best way for me to review this enthralling book is to get off the beaten path and summarize the 10 main takeaways that strike me the most.

1. Whatever you think of it, “war is still very much worth studying.” That’s the common thread of the book.

2. Totalitarian régimes have an easier time launching, conducting and bearing the brunt of war. The rise of autocracies throughout the world is therefore a challenge for democracies not accustomed with the pugilistic mindset.

3. Don’t cut military spending. “Money saved in piecemeal defense cuts often costs more in the long run.” The authors mention Great Britain’s decision to axe HMS Endurance before the Falklands War as a case in point. They also refer to Israel’s defense cuts after the Six Days War, with the consequences that followed six years later on the fateful morning of Kippur. Deterrence is cheap compared to war’s tribute in blood and treasure.

4. Focus. Don’t chase two rabbits at the same time. The chapters devoted to Afghanistan and Iraq – on which General Petraeus’s firsthand experience is unparalleled – are sadly eloquent about mistakes committed due to the overextension of America’s military engagement on these two fronts.

5. Intelligence is key. The Russian army’s shortcomings during the war in Ukraine are directly associated to a deficiency at that level. The same occurred with the Iraq War, which started in 2003. Washington’s legate in Baghdad, L. Paul Bremer “was unquestionably very intelligent; however, he lacked any significant knowledge of Iraq or the wider Middle East and proved to be an unfortunate choice for the job. His first three major decisions after arriving in Iraq, taken without consultation with those of us who had been on the ground for two months already, all but ensured that a virulent insurgency would erupt in the months ahead.”

6. Never tell your enemy what you will or won’t do. President Barack Obama’s announcement of a deployment in Iraq in 2009, “while simultaneously stating his intention to begin a drawdown of those forces eighteen months later” only contributed to Washington’s enemies’ capacities to refine their strategy. Not following on one’s threats belongs to the same category of mistakes to be avoided – if one seeks success as a strategic leader.

7. Innovation and technologies mean “the end of the human monopoly on war”. Even though they harbor no love for Russian president Vladimir Putin, the authors credit him being right when he said, “whoever becomes the leader in [AI] will become the ruler of the world.”

8. That doesn’t mean humans will take a backseat. For the breath of its analysis, the chapter about the war in Ukraine is probably the most interesting in my opinion. “Every Ukrainian with a mobile phone [became] a potential artillery spotter of intelligence collector.” It was also “the first crowd-funded war”. The iPhone has become a potent tool on the public sphere battlefield.

9. Morale is key. My favorite quote in the book belongs to retired Israeli military officer and high-ranking diplomat Michael Herzog who wrote in the foreword of his father’s history of the Kippur War that “the training and skill of the soldier, his motivation, the quality of the chain of command, initiative, courage and perseverance all underlie the War’s result far more than any weapons. Even in the era of technology, man still stands at the center of the picture.”

10. The last lesson is as old and crucial as the preceding. “The side that learns and adapts the fastest typically prevails, and commanders have to take explicit actions to promote a culture of learning and adaptation […].” This doesn’t just need to be known but incorporated and implemented.

The contours of the future of warfare are drawn under our eyes. Conflict is a real tour de force where the inestimable experience of one of the finest swords intertwines with the craftsmanship of history of the other. The collaboration between these two authors, utmost experts in their respective fields, invite the reader to realize that lessons of yesteryear are the shoulders on which military giants of the present and the future will climb.

General Petraeus and Lord Roberts’ book therefore deserve the widest possible readership, not only among military enthusiasts, but also from informed citizens. Polemology has always been and will always be worth studying and meditating – for, as Sir Winston Churchill said, “the Story of the human race is War.”

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General David Petraeus and Andrew Roberts, Conflict: The Evolution of Warfare from 1945 to Ukraine, New York, Harper, 2023, 544 pages.

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