Category: China

The Crown as a Geopolitical Player

On By Marc NadeauIn Charles III, China, Commonwealth, Gabon, Geopolitics, Hachette Book Group Canada, Katie Nicholl, Monarchy, Prince of Wales, Prince William, Queen Elizabeth II, Russia, Scotland, Togo, Xi JinpingLeave a comment

“The worst thing for a monarchy is not hostility, but indifference”, writes Katie Nicholl in her book The New Royals: Queen Elizabeth’s Legacy and the Future of the Crown (Hachette Books). I was reminded of that crucial notion when I took note of a recent poll conducted in Canada, according to which “[…] only 19 percent of Canadians would prefer that the country remain a monarchy, down 12 points since a similar poll conducted in September 2022.”

The Crown has visibly not lost its appeal in the UK, but the warning signs in places like Canada, Australia, and New Zealand – just to name these – would be ignored at great peril.

The author, one of the keenest observers of the Crown and a gifted writer who has acquired first-hand knowledge of her subject, exposes the challenges facing the successors of Queen Elizabeth II while brushing the personal traits of the actors who are and will be called upon to meet them.

King Charles III was the longest-serving Prince of Wales, a title created in 1301 after “[…] King Edwards I conquered Wales and gave the title to his son”. With the help of genetics and a life of privilege, his reign might span a few decades, but most consider it transitional.

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Donald Trump was an unprincipled commander in chief

On By Marc NadeauIn Barack Obama, China, Donald Trump, George H. W. Bush, George W. Bush, HarperCollins, History, Leadership, Mark T. Esper, Military, United States, William MorrowLeave a comment

At the crest of the wave of the Covid-19 pandemic, I devoured retired Admiral William McRaven’s book Sea Stories, relishing its numerous anecdotes. One of them concerned Abu Ghadiya, a terrorist mastermind responsible for the highest number of American and Iraqi deaths, notably at the hands of suicide bombers. At a crucial moment, the US Army received intelligence on his whereabouts in Syria, giving them the possibility of neutralizing him. President George W. Bush’s approval was necessary to conduct the operation.

To make a fascinating story short, Admiral McRaven was tasked with briefing President George W. Bush about the sensitive mission. During the briefing, the commander-in-chief, who didn’t have a strong reputation as an intellectual or a man of detail, asked a very pointed question about the ordnance proposed to conduct the mission. “He was so well versed on the missions and the nomenclature of the specific ordnance that he understood that using a precision-guided five-hundred-pound GBU-31 was in fact the right munition for the job. I was momentarily taken aback by the question.”

In Countdown bin Laden, Chris Wallace says much the same about President Barack Obama during the quest to neutralize Osama bin Laden. “He was a president who carefully analyzed everything before making a decision”, observed the veteran journalist.

Unsurprisingly, things took a turn for the worst when Donald Trump arrived in the Oval Office. In a very insightful – yet scary memoir – former Secretary of Defense Mark T. Esper paints the portrait of “[…] an idiosyncratic, unpredictable, and unprincipled commander in chief” and a man as despicable as one can be.

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Top Gun Maverick and the Taiwanese flag – Exclusive interview with Chris Fenton

On By Marc NadeauIn China, Chris Fenton, Hollywood, Japan, Military, Simon & Schuster, Taiwan, Top Gun Maverick, United States, US NavyLeave a comment
Chris Fenton (source: Variety.com)

With the release of Top Gun Maverick and all the buzz surrounding the issue of the Taiwan flag on Maverick’s leather jacket, Hollywood former movie executive and author Chris Fenton kindly accepted to answer a few questions for this blog. Needless to say, I was extremely happy to be exchanging with the producer of one of my favorite movies, Iron Man 3.

Here is the content of our exchange.

Mr. Fenton, the last couple of years have been difficult for the United States on the world scene and many observers are pontificating about its supposed loss of power. Do you think Top Gun Maverick is a good shot in the arm of American patriotism?

100% yes. Hollywood content can be an extremely effective tool for soft power. Top Gun is the best example of that.

What is the recipe for the success of that iconic movie?

The star power of Tom Cruise and the brand awareness among global consumers of the original Top Gun film.

The Taiwan flag was not supposed to appear on Maverick’s jacket – from what I remember of the 2019 trailer. Could you tell us why the situation has changed?

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Heeding Wellington’s Advice

On By Marc NadeauIn China, Duke of Wellington, General Valery Gerasimov, Iran, Irregular warfare, Penguin Random House, People's Liberation Army, Qassem Soleimani, Russia, Seth G. Jones, United States, War, Zhang YouxiaLeave a comment
Dr. Seth G. Jones (source: CSIS)

In the aftermath of my review of his excellent book, Three Dangerous Men: Russia, China, Iran and the Rise of Irregular Warfare, its author Dr. Seth G. Jones accepted to answer my questions. Our exchange occurred before the start of the invasion of Ukraine. With cyber warfare at the disposal of current armies – like the crashing of the Kremlin website today – the content of this insightful book is ever more pertinent. And Dr. Jones is the best specialist to better understand this new way of conducting war.

Here is the content of this fascinating exchange.

Valery Gerasimov has been an avid student of U.S. military campaigns.

Dr. Jones, in Three Dangerous Men, one of the things I found most interesting was the reading habits of Russian General Valery Gerasimov. Apart from devouring tomes about Russian military doctrine and history, do you know if he is also interested in learning about Western figures and military episodes?

Valery Gerasimov has been an avid student of U.S. military campaigns. He closely studied U.S. operations in Bosnia, Kosovo, Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, and other countries. Gerasimov concluded that the United States had moved away from what he called the “traditional” approach to warfare and toward a “new,” more clandestine approach, which he termed a “concealed use of force.” Gerasimov’s study of the United States was instrumental in evolving Russia’s own military doctrine, strategy, and tactics—including its use of irregular warfare.

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The bookworm, the martyr, and Xi’s longtime friend

On By Marc NadeauIn 2034, Admiral James Stavridis, China, Iran, Irregular warfare, James N. Mattis, Penguin Random House Canada, People's Liberation Army, Qassem Soleimani, Russia, Seth G. Jones, United States, Valery Gerasimov, Zhang Youxia1 Comment

War adapts itself and evolves. While some may take comfort in the fact that conventional battles are most likely a phenomenon of the past, the wisdom that guided those who won them is crucial to inform us about how to efficiently carry the fight from now on.

I recently reviewed the insightful novel 2034 by Admiral James Stavridis about a potential future war between China and the United States, during which China’s People’s Liberation Army takes advantage of technology to defeat the US Navy. Anyone watching the news can grasp that the rivalry between Beijing and Washington could lead to a hot war in the future, even if the author of the novel – a man who forgot more about polemology than any of us will ever learn – evaluates that the risks are feeble, the need to be prepared is nevertheless crucial.

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“Overall, 2021 has been a difficult year for the Biden team” – Admiral James Stavridis

On By Marc NadeauIn 2034, Admiral James Stavridis, China, Geopolitics, Iran, Israel, Joe Biden, Penguin Random House Canada, Russia, United States, Vladimir PutinLeave a comment
Admiral James Stavridis USN (Ret.) (source: US Naval Institute)

Before the Holidays, Admiral James Stavridis USN (Ret.), one of my favorite authors, granted me an end of year interview about issues related to his amazing novel 2034 about a war between China and the United States. These geopolitical issues are unlikely to disappear from the radar in the coming months and years. The Admiral’s insights are therefore not only very informative, but also crucial to grasp the state of the world.

Admiral Stavridis, I’ve read and reviewed 2034: A Novel of the Next World War (Penguin Random House) with tremendous interest. Before we head into more serious stuff, a question burns my tongue. Since there are lots of mention of the delicious M&Ms throughout the novel, I was wondering if you are a fan of that candy yourself and if that’s the reason why it is mentioned in the book?

While I am not personally a fan of M&M candies, I have known many sea-going naval officers who are. I liked the idea of Lin Bao [one of the main characters of 2034] enjoying an American candy, essentially a nod to the duality of his upbringing.

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2034: The War With China?

On By Marc NadeauIn Admiral James Stavridis, China, Elliot Ackerman, India, Jean-Pierre Cabestan, M&M, Penguin Random House Canada, People's Liberation Army, Technology, United States, US Navy, Vladimir Putin, War3 Comments

I am not a person who enjoys novels. My youngest daughter was therefore astonished when she saw me reading 2034: A Novel of the Next World War. “Yes, but it’s about a potential war between the United States and China. Plus, it’s written by an author I really like and admire, Admiral Stavridis [and Elliot Ackerman]”, I said. I admit that this was an exceptional experience and not only because of the genre, but mainly because this is one of the most thoughtful books anyone interested in geopolitics and the fate of the world should read now.

2034. About 12 years from now. Might as well say tomorrow. Russian President Vladimir Putin still occupies the highest office in the Kremlin – a scenario that made me smile – and the Israelis have lost the Golan after a military confrontation with Syria – an outcome that makes me cringe, since I have seen with my own eyes how vital this territory is to Israel’s security. The Chinese are still vying for “[…] uncontested control of the South China Sea.” Equipped with superior cyber capabilities, the Chinese People’s Liberation Army neutralizes the weapons and communications system of a flotilla of three American warships. Only one of them will remain afloat at the end of the confrontation. A military operation that was supposed to serve as a message turned into a World War.

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The General who Prevented a Fascist Takeover of America

On By Marc NadeauIn Bob Woodward, China, Donald Trump, General Mark Milley, History, Joe Biden, Mike Pence, Military, Robert Costa, Simon & Schuster, United StatesLeave a comment

Few journalists and observers are more versed in US presidential history than Bob Woodward. In his latest book, Peril, written with fellow Washington Post reporter Robert Costa, they write that “Most [presidential] candidates struggle with the message. In his case [Joe Biden], he was the message.” The former Vice-President was the best positioned to carry the day in front of President Donald Trump, a man who didn’t and probably couldn’t grasp the magnitude of Covid-19 (“I wanted to always play it down”, he said to Bob Woodward in March 2020), or the basic tenets of politics. About the latter aspect, “[Corey Lewandowski, who was Trump’s campaign manager in 2016] was surprised that Trump, of all people, did not seem to get that Republican leaders were self-interested.”

In a nutshell, Trump – who did not have a story to tell – couldn’t possibly compete with a man whose own life was and is the story – Joe Biden. “There is no news I can walk in and give him in the morning that is worse than the news he’s been given many other times in his life”, White House Chief of Staff Ron Klain told the authors about President Biden in what is probably the best book published about US politics this year.

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“Good strategy might just be staying out of trouble” – Exclusive interview with Sir Lawrence Freedman

On By Marc NadeauIn Afghanistan, China, Henry Kissinger, Joe Biden, King's College London, Russia, Sir Lawrence Freedman, Strategy, Syria, Taiwan, Ukraine, Vladimir Putin, Xi JinpingLeave a comment
Sir Lawrence Freedman (credit: Boston Consulting Group)

Sir Lawrence Freedman is not only an internationally acclaimed author, but he is also the dean of British strategic studies and Emeritus Professor of War Studies at King’s College London. I have a boundless admiration for this institution and I hope to enlist in the near future to the online Master’s Degree in War Studies it offers.

Sir Lawrence generously accepted to answer a few questions for this blog and I am extremely grateful for that. Here is the content of our exchange.

Russia is a constant challenge because it feels itself at threat from the West and has taken a tough stance that creates an edginess.

My point was then that the withdrawal from Afghanistan, chaotic though it was, was unfortunately expected and the lesson (not to put substantial ground forces into a civil war) had been learned a decade earlier. Russia is a constant challenge because it feels itself at threat from the West and has taken a tough stance that creates an edginess, especially as it plays a disruptive role in European affairs. It poses a challenge that is serious but should be manageable as its underlying position if weak. China has been getting stronger for the past three decades year on year, although that growth may be stuttering now. It has turned itself into a great power, militarily as well as economically, and under Xi has taken a much more assertive stance on a whole range of issues. I believe this stance will turn out to be counter-productive, but it creates a risky and dynamic situation which could spark a wider confrontation (see answer to next question).

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The Peasant Emperor

On By Marc NadeauIn Bloomsbury, China, Chinese Communist Party, Deng Xiaoping, I.B. Tauris, Kerry Brown, Leadership, Mao Zedong, Xi JinpingLeave a comment

A few years ago, media outlets reported that Chinese President Xi Jinping dined on steamed buns in a Beijing restaurant. Whether this venue was an orchestrated photo opportunity or the instantaneous desire of a world leader searching for a whiff of normalcy in the sometime claustrophobic alleys of power doesn’t really matter. Its true purpose was revelatory of who Xi is; a leader who is and wants to be close to the people.

I was reminded of that outing while reading Kerry Brown’s book The World According to Xi: Everything You Need to Know About the New China (I.B. Tauris), a pertinent and still timely book (2018) on the actual leader of the second most important economy on the planet.

“Of the recent leaders of China since Deng [Xiaoping], in many ways Xi is the one with the most authentic, best-known links to the countryside, and his use of this set of experiences aims to convey this.” Furthermore, and probably because he was a victim of the Cultural Revolution himself, Xi had to make no less than 10 attempts to become a member of the Party. In a nutshell, the General Secretary of the Party didn’t get an easy pass to power. And I’m certain this resonates with many ordinary people.

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