The Presidential Satchel

Historically, the concept of war has followed a familiar script: one victor and one vanquished. However, there exists a scenario that defies this ancient logic — nuclear war. In such a case, writes Annie Jacobsen in Nuclear War: A Scenario (Dutton), “there is no such thing as capitulation. No such thing as surrender.” Only the scorched silence of what once was.

From the very first lines, the reader is drawn into a vortex of dread—a work of speculative fiction so meticulously constructed that it becomes indistinguishable from reality. This is not merely an intellectual exercise; it is a mirror held up to our world, one where the unthinkable remains entirely plausible—and where our ability to avoid catastrophe may depend less on preparedness than on our collective refusal to acknowledge the danger.

The scenario imagined by the author begins with a North Korean nuclear strike on the United States. Confronted with the unthinkable, the President has only six minutes –  six excruciating minutes – to respond, as Ronald Reagan warned in his memoirs. From this point of no return, events unfold with brutal logic, and everything collapses.

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With God on his side

“Patton is a problem child, but he is a great fighting leader in pursuit and exploration”, said General Dwight D. Eisenhower about his unconventional subordinate. That quote is in Alex Kershaw’s last book Patton’s Prayer: A True Story of Courage, Faith, and Victory in World War II (Dutton).

I have been a longtime fan of this author’s books. I have reviewed some here. I initially wanted to publish this review before Christmas in commemoration of the start of the iconic Battle of the Bulge, “the greatest ever fought, in terms of the number of US troops involved, in US military history” and “the deadliest for the US in World War II”. However, events dictated otherwise, and I told myself I had until the end of January, when the battle officially ended, to move forward with my intention.

But then came President Donald Trump’s inauguration earlier this week, and the words pronounced by Cardinal Timothy Dolan, blessing the incoming administration. The Catholic Archbishop of New York mentioned “General George Patton’s instructions to his soldiers as they began the Battle of the Bulge eight decades ago: “Pray! Pray when fighting. Pray alone. Pray with others. Pray by night. Pray by day.””

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Ike, le bien-aimé

La politique américaine est omniprésente. Ses grandes personnalités irriguent l’actualité et influencent le cours de l’histoire. À quelques jours de l’investiture du président Donald Trump pour un second mandat non consécutif, il m’apparaît pertinent de commenter la personnalité de l’un de mes présidents favoris, Dwight D. Eisenhower, à la lumière d’une excellente biographie que lui consacre l’universitaire Hélène Harter.

Dans Eisenhower : Le chef de guerre devenu président, elle retrace le parcours d’un homme qui a su tracer sa voie en misant sur des qualités singulières.

Les commémorations du 80e anniversaire du débarquement en Normandie le 6 juin 2024 ont permis à cette figure de proue des Forces alliées de faire une nouvelle apparition dans l’espace médiatique. À bon droit, puisque la contribution de celui qui « a réussi cinq débarquements » fut essentielle à la planification et au bon déroulement du « Jour J ». Tout au long de sa carrière militaire, ce fils du Kansas aura gravi méthodiquement les échelons. L’historienne spécialiste des États-Unis à l’Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne résume éloquemment son passage au Département de la guerre, entre 1929 et 1935. « Il est compétent et il sait prendre des initiatives. Les entrepreneurs qu’il a rencontrés l’apprécient aussi. Il est diplomate et arrondit les angles quand les militaires ont la réputation d’être portés aux échanges rugueux en cas de désaccord », écrit-elle à propos de cet organisateur hors pair qui aura été aux premières loges du passage des forces américaines d’une 17e place mondiale à celle d’instrument incontournable dans « l’arsenal de la démocratie ». C’est tout Eisenhower qui est résumé dans cet extrait.

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The Making of Trump 2.0

Historically, the main task of any President-elect in the United States is to form a cabinet. In the last weeks, we have seen a cascade of announcements that have raised some eyebrows. Donald Trump’s picks for key positions in his second administration might seem odd to many.

Not so much if you grab a copy of retired Lieutenant General H. R. McMaster’s insightful book At War with Ourselves: My Tour of Duty in the Trump White House (Harper).

Upon his selection as National Security Advisor by the 45th President, the military general wanted to give his boss the best of his expertise. After consulting with one of his notorious predecessors, Lieutenant General Brent Scowcroft, who masterfully seconded President George H. W. Bush, McMaster understood his role as “making the policy process work and developing options for the president; and second, advising the president with views unalloyed by the departments and their bureaucracies.” The only person that mattered to him was the President, whose foreign policy should be well served. He also perceived his role as being above partisanship. His goodwill would be rewarded with disappointment.

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Netanyahu Was Right

I had the privilege of meeting Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu years ago. During our discussion, he stressed the fact that it was crucial to support Israel because it is the first line of defense of the West and its values. As a commando soldier, diplomat and statesman, this man has accumulated a vast experience fighting extremism in its most brutal forms.

I was therefore not surprised to learn that he was the first world leader to make a congratulatory call to President Donald Trump, after the Americans liberated the world of the nefarious presence of Qasem Soleimani, the Iranian warlord in charge of the Revolutionary Guards who was a combination of “James Bond, Erwin Rommel, and Lady Gaga rolled into one” for his supporters.

That information is revealed in Killing the Killers: The Secret War Against Terrorism (St. Martin’s Press) by veteran journalist Bill O’Reilly and acclaimed author Martin Dugard, whose books I reviewed on this blog.

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Planet Strongman

In his 2020 bestseller Rage, Washington legendary journalist and author Bob Woodward recalls discussing the direction of the Trump administration’s foreign policy with the President. Mentioning his dealings with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan regarding the war in Syria, the commander-in-chief said: “I get along very well with Erdogan, even though you’re not supposed to because everyone says ‘What a horrible guy’. But for me it works out good. It’s funny the relationships I have, the tougher and meaner they are, the better I get along with them. You know?”

In his captivating recent book The Age of the Strongman (Other Press), Financial Times foreign affairs commentator Gideon Rachman quotes former National Security Affairs specialist Fiona Hill when she declared that her former boss was seduced by “autocrat envy”. From Jair Bolsonaro (in Brazil) to Vladimir Putin, as well as Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS), the 45th President got along quite well with those whom he perceived as being strong, an expression easily interchangeable with being autocratic. This trend was confirmed early last month when Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán took the stage at the Conservative Political Action Committee (CPAC) gathering in Dallas, Texas.

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Pour Kissinger, le désordre est le mal absolu

À 99 ans, son esprit et sa plume demeurent toujours aussi aiguisés. Henry Kissinger distille son expertise aguerrie des relations internationales et, malgré les controverses suscitées comme lorsqu’il conseillait que l’Ukraine devienne « […] un État-tampon entre la Russie et l’Union européenne », ses lumières sont toujours aussi éclairantes parce qu’elles sont dénuées de l’émotion chevillée au corps de la « tyrannie de l’instant ».

Henry Kissinger m’accompagne intellectuellement depuis mes années universitaires, alors que je me plongeais dans son livre-phare Diplomatie et que je partais à la recherche de sa dernière tribune. Nous n’avions pas accès aux banques de données à cette époque. L’exercice n’était donc pas aussi simple et rapide qu’aujourd’hui. Il ne cesse depuis de me fasciner et je prête toujours une oreille très attentive à ses propos.

J’étais donc extrêmement heureux de plonger le nez dans la biographie que lui a récemment consacré le diplomate français Gérard Araud. Henry Kissinger : le diplomate du siècle (Éditions Tallandier) propose un tour d’horizon solide de la vie, de la pensée et de l’oeuvre du grand homme. Alors que l’Holocauste frappe son Allemagne natale, l’adolescent juif de 15 ans arrive avec sa famille aux États-Unis en août 1938. C’est le début d’un parcours exceptionnel qui verra le jeune académique s’épanouir dans les cercles du pouvoir américain après la Seconde Guerre mondiale.

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The financier who exposed Vladimir Putin

Six years ago this week, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan survived a coup launched by a faction of the Armed Forces. The statesman mobilized his supporters, enjoining them to resist the coup, by using the FaceTime app on his iPhone. At the time, I was impressed by the powerful impact of such a small tool in creating such a momentous outcome.

I was reminded of that story while reading Bill Browder’s book Freezing Order: A True Story of Money Laundering, Murder and Surviving Vladimir Putin’s Wrath (Simon & Schuster), not only because of the cruciality of knowing how to use the modern tools of communications, but also because there is a huge price to pay when you confront an autocrat.

Bill Browder can attest to that.

The author of Freezing Order is an American-born financier (now living in the UK) and founder of Hermitage Capital Management who has been active in Russia between 1996 and 2008. In June 2008, one of his lawyers, “[…] Sergei Magnitsky, discovered that […] criminals had used our stolen companies and their fake claims to apply for a fraudulent $230 million tax refund.” That’s where the roller coaster ride that is this book begins.

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Barack Obama a pavé la voie à Vladimir Poutine en Crimée

20 août 2012. Derrière le podium de la salle de presse de la Maison Blanche, le président Barack Obama met en garde le régime syrien de Bachar el-Assad de ne pas franchir la ligne rouge que représente l’utilisation d’armes chimiques. Une admonestation dont le président syrien fera fi un an plus tard. On s’attend alors à ce que les Américains entre dans la danse et utilisent leur puissance militaire pour mettre le dirigeant récalcitrant au pas. Il n’en sera rien. Obama tergiverse. L’osmose fait défaut entre lui et son administration sur le dossier syrien. Traumatisé stratégiquement par les péripéties martiales de son prédécesseur, le patron « ne veut pas se retrouver dans la même situation que celle de George W. Bush en Irak […]. »

Devant lui, les Russes et leur président Vladimir Poutine veillent au grain. Pas question de se faire damer le pion pour le maître du Kremlin. Et pourquoi pas tirer avantage de la situation? À ce jeu, il est redoutable, surtout devant la faiblesse des Occidentaux qui peinent à articuler une position solide. Difficile de poser les jalons du changement de régime à Damas, puisque l’opposition est tout autant tétanisée par l’exil que par les divisions.

Diplomatiquement, d’abord, Moscou sauvera la face des Américains en annonçant le « désarmement chimique de son allié syrien ». Le repli décidé dans le Bureau Ovaleaura ensuite des répercussions majeures sur le plan militaire.

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Vladimir Putin, campaign manager

A few years ago, I was captivated by Peter Schweizer’s book Reagan’s War: The Epic Story of His Forty-Year Struggle and Final Triumph Over Communism. That fascinating book detailed how the 40th President of the United States used the economic weaknesses of the USSR to bring it on its knees, notably with the help of the Saudis regarding the oil price and the military build-up with which Moscow could not compete with Washington.

Turns out that, while the USSR crumbled, a young KGB lieutenant colonel named Vladimir Putin took good note.  In a recent interview with a former Soviet official, my interlocutor spoke to me about the Russian President’s love of judo – his favorite sport – and the transposition of its techniques in politics. The master of the Kremlin’s dealings in world affairs is a good illustration of his abilities to take advantage of his opponents’ weight to knock them down.

Nowhere is this ability more evident than in the pages of British journalist Luke Harding’s book Shadow State: Murder, Mayhem, and Russia’s Remaking of the West (Harper). In a real page-turner, the author details how the Russian government and its entities are influencing the West’s political life. For example, using Novichok as a calling card in attempting to neutralize Sergei Skripal, a former Russian intelligence officer who betrayed the GRU (The Main Directorate of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation). Or shabby dealings using banks allegedly to bail out influential people – allegedly like former US President Donald Trump. Moscow is determined to go to any lengths “[…] to return to a nineteenth-century model of great-power politics and to disrupt the ideals-based international order established after the Second World War […].”

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