The fate of war is sealed long before the sound of cannons fills the air. That is the conclusion I reached after reading Phillips Payson O’Brien’s latest book, and it recalls Sun Tzu’s teaching that victorious warriors win first and then go to war.

The argument resonates in a particular way when viewed against the backdrop of a news report according to which “the U.S. Army has significantly depleted its stockpile of highly accurate long-range missiles” (The Independent). Not necessarily the strongest posture from which to engage a determined enemy. “Going back to the great invasion of Greece by the Persian emperor Xerxes in 480 BCE (sometimes referred to as his second invasion), it can be seen how the largest and most powerful military forces can be crippled by the lack of supply”, writes the acclaimed historian in War and Power: Who Wins Wars and Why (PublicAffairs).

Before and beyond the clashes of iron and blood, “war is a test of various systems in a multitude of different ways; it is not a test of armies, and certainly not something that is determined by supposedly decisive battles”. Societies must therefore be willing to sustain the financial, industrial, and moral investments required to prevail when called upon. Alas, “instead of investing in their militaries, western European countries [to which we could add other countries, like Canada] have prioritized their vast welfare states”, as observed by former Senior National Security Adviser to the Australian government John Lee in a recent Foreign Affairs article. Such choices carry a cost—not only for national resources, but also for long-term strategic credibility.