« La guerre d’Ukraine a contribué à une détérioration des relations sino-américaines » – Jean-Pierre Cabestan

On By Marc NadeauIn Affaires militaires, États-Unis, Chine, Gallimard, Jean-Pierre Cabestan, Joe Biden, Russie, Taiwan, Ukraine, Xi JinpingLeave a comment
Les présidents chinois, Xi Jinping, et des États-Unis, Joe Biden (source Al Jazeera)

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Je publie aujourd’hui la deuxième partie de l’excellente entrevue que j’ai récemment réalisée avec le sinologue et auteur réputé Jean-Pierre Cabestan.

Professeur, à la page 132 de votre livre Demain la Chine : guerre ou paix?, vous écrivez : « La mauvaise nouvelle est que même si les États-Unis remportent la bataille du blocus [contre Taiwan], ils ne sont pas certains de gagner la guerre : Taiwan est plus proche de la République populaire que du continent américain et Pékin est probablement plus résolu que Washington à arriver à ses fins. » Observez-vous une baisse de détermination chez les élites américaines par rapport à Taiwan?

Non pas pour l’instant, et pas du tout dans un avenir prévisible. Cette considération porte sur le long terme et surtout dans le contexte postérieur à une tentative chinoise de prise de contrôle de Taiwan par des moyens militaires. Le rapport des forces actuels dans le Pacifique occidental contraint déjà les États-Unis de recourir à des moyens asymétriques pour espérer contrer toute opération de l’APL (Armée populaire de libération).

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« L’invasion de l’Ukraine par la Russie complique les choses pour Xi Jinping » – Jean-Pierre Cabestan

On By Marc NadeauIn Affaires militaires, Armée populaire de libération (APL), États-Unis, Chine, Gallimard, Guerre, Jean-Pierre Cabestan, OTAN, Russie, Taiwan, Ukraine, Vladimir Poutine, Xi JinpingLeave a comment
Source: Financial Times

Dans la foulée de ma recension de son dernier livre, le sinologue réputé Jean-Pierre Cabestan, qui est professeur de sciences politiques à la Hong Kong Baptist University, a généreusement accepté de m’accorder une entrevue. Étant donné sa longueur, j’ai décidé de la publier en deux parties.

Puisqu’il y est question de la Chine et de l’impact de la guerre en Ukraine sur les relations entre Pékin et Washington, ses observations mettent en lumière une dynamique incontournable dans les relations internationales.

Voici le contenu de notre échange.

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Professeur Cabestan, dans votre excellent livre Demain la Chine : guerre ou paix?, vous évoquez souvent la notion de « passion et de poudre ». Nous en observons actuellement une manifestation ailleurs sur le globe, en Ukraine. Quelle est votre lecture de l’attitude de la Chine dans la guerre initiée par Moscou en Ukraine? Pensez-vous que l’attitude du Kremlin vient brouiller les cartes pour Xi Jinping?

L’invasion de l’Ukraine par la Russie complique les choses pour Xi Jinping, et pas seulement à propos de Taiwan. Elle montre que le passage du seuil de la guerre a de multiples conséquences, souvent incalculables, et peut déclencher une escalade, voire une nucléarisation du conflit, également difficilement prévisible et contrôlable.

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Drone Wars: The Poor Man’s Air Force

On By Marc NadeauIn Bayraktar TB2, Drones, Duke of Wellington, Iron Dome, Israel, Military, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Saudi Arabia, Seth J. Frantzman, Simon & Schuster, Skylark, Turkey, Ukraine, War, Warfare, Yemen1 Comment

A few years ago, I was intrigued to read that President Barack Obama ordered 10 times more drone strikes than his predecessor, President George W. Bush. Since their appearance, drones have become omnipresent on the battlefield and not a week goes by without a news article about their feats.

Incidentally, drones have played a role in the war of aggression launched against Ukraine by Russia in the last few weeks. They are also used in several theaters around the world. In a nutshell, “the drones developed by Israel and then revolutionized by America have now proliferated everywhere”, writes Seth J. Frantzman in Drone Wars: Pioneers, Killing Machines, Artificial Intelligence, and the Battle for the Future (Bombardier Books).

The author writes that everyone wants drones, notably because they are cheaper than airplanes and reduce the potential for human casualties. They have become the “poor man’s air force”. Hence, their use by Houthi rebels in Yemen in the cross-fight between Iran and Saudi Arabia.About this conflict, the Jerusalem Post correspondent and analyst reminds us of a chilling episode when Houthi drones attacked an Aramco facility in Saudi Arabia – “some 1,000 kilometers from Houthi frontlines in Yemen” – in August 2019. The kingdom which ranked in 6th place in terms of military expenditures in the world in 2020 was defenseless in front of this incursion. A real military representation of the biblical tale of David versus Goliath and a manifestation that superpowers are not immune from an attack performed by a “poor man’s air force”.

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Putin thought he could get away with the invasion of Ukraine

On By Marc NadeauIn Berlin Airlift, Cold war, Frank Howley, Giles Milton, Harry S. Truman, Joseph Stalin, Macmillan, Russia, Ukraine, United States, Vladimir Putin, Volodymyr ZelenskyLeave a comment
Giles Milton (source: Macmillan)

Giles Milton is one of my favorite authors. And it’s always a real pleasure to be in touch with him. Even before I wrote my review of his last book, he agreed to answer some questions for this blog. If you haven’t read his book yet, run to the bookstore or get it online. This is a must, in the context of the aggression war conducted against Ukraine. For the time being, I trust you will enjoy this interview.

Mr. Milton, Checkmate in Berlin is a brilliant lecture about American and British innovation in adversity, mainly in organizing the Berlin airlift. Do you see the same attitude these days towards Ukraine?

Nothing on the scale of the Berlin Airlift had ever been attempted before. True, the Americans had airlifted vast quantities of weapons to the Chinese during the Second World War, but the Berlin Airlift was supporting (and keeping alive) several million Berliners.

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How Yeltsin Paved Putin’s Way

On By Marc NadeauIn Bettina Renz, Boris Yeltsin, Military, Polity Books, Russia, Ukraine, Vladimir Putin, War1 Comment

The Russian army and soldiers are all over the news since the invasion of Ukraine on February 24. It is therefore crucial to understand the military machine that is supposed to serve Vladimir Putin’s foreign policy. In her insightful book, Russia’s Military Revival (Polity), University of Nottingham Professor Bettina Renz quotes a fellow academic who observed that “by the end of the 1990s, Russia had largely been written off as a global military force as it was generally assumed that its armed forces stood ‘perilously close to ruin.’” While Putin’s 2008 modernization program proved instrumental in giving the Russian army its pride and means, the main argument of the author is that this development “did not occur in a vacuum.”

Since the reigns of the Tsars, “[…] having a strong military has always been important to Russia”, mainly to ensure régime stability, its presence in the world as a great power and the necessity – in the Kremlin’s perspective – of keeping a buffer zone against real or imagined potential invasion. Continuity is the main theme developed by Bettina Renz in her book.

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Turkish Drones Over Ukraine

On By Marc NadeauIn Drones, Military, Russia, Seth J. Frantzman, Simon & Schuster, TB2 Bayraktar, Turkey, Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky1 Comment
Seth J. Frantzman (source ANF News)

Seth J. Frantzman is a senior correspondent and analyst at The Jerusalem Post, one of the world’s leading newspapers. He’s also a defence expert on anything related to drones in warfare. He recently published an insightful book on the subject, Drones Wars. Since the beginning of the invasion of Ukraine by Russians forces on 24 February, drones have played a role on the frontline as videos have circulated about their performance or the devastation and atrocities they permit to observe first-hand. Despite a grueling schedule, Mr. Frantzman, whose book I will review here soon, has kindly accepted to answer a few questions for me. I am sincerely grateful for that.

Here is the content of our exchange.

It does not seem the drones are playing a major role, but if they can show that Ukraine can still operate in their airspace, even when contested by Russian air defense and Russian warplanes, it will be an important accomplishment for armed drones.

Mr. Frantzman, I have watched with amazement the images of the Turkish-made drone attacking the Russian military in Ukraine. What place are the drones occupying in this conflict? 

There is a lot we don’t know about how Ukraine is using the Bayraktar drones it has acquired from Turkey. Basic information about how many are still flying and where they are operating appears to be lacking from most reports. Nevertheless, there have been several videos claiming to show the UAVs targeting the Russian military. It does not seem the drones are playing a major role, but if they can show that Ukraine can still operate in their airspace, even when contested by Russian air defense and Russian warplanes, it will be an important accomplishment for armed drones. 

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Putin’s Soviet Playbook

On By Marc NadeauIn Berlin, Berlin Blockade, Cold war, Ernest Bevin, Frank Howley, Franklin D. Roosevelt, General Lucius Clay, Georgy Zhukov, Giles Milton, History, John Murray Press, Joseph Stalin, Russia, Ukraine, Winston ChurchillLeave a comment

As I grow older, I realize that history is one of the surest guides to navigate the present. While many adhered to Francis Fukuyama’s theory that the demise of Soviet Union on December 26, 1991, represented the end of history, others lamented what they perceived as “the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the century”.

Old habits die hard and Giles Milton’s Checkmate in Berlin: The Cold War Showdown That Shaped the Modern World is an excellent representation of that idiom. “”America is now the primary enemy,” said one of Marshal’s Zhukov’s general at the time of the capture of Berlin. “We have destroyed the base of Fascism. Now we must destroy the base of Capitalism – America.”” Things haven’t changed much in the last 77 years.

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« Le soldat qui s’engage pour son pays n’est pas un fonctionnaire comme un autre »

On By Marc NadeauIn Affaires militaires, Éditions Tallandier, Forces spéciales, Guerre, Littérature, Nicolas ZellerLeave a comment
Le médecin en chef Nicolas Zeller en opérations (source: médecin en chef Nicolas Zeller)

Dans la foulée de ma recension de son livre très interpellant Corps et âme : Un médecin des forces spéciales témoigne, le médecin en chef Nicolas Zeller a eu la grande amabilité d’accepter de répondre à quelques questions pour ce blogue, et ce, malgré un emploi du temps assurément très chargé à l’état-major des Armées à Paris.

À l’heure où des soldats sont bien malgré eux en vedette tous les jours dans l’actualité en raison de l’invasion de l’Ukraine, la réflexion et les observations de cet auteur qui allie la profondeur à des mots bien ciselés sont des plus pertinentes et éclairantes.

Voici donc le contenu de notre échange.

Au début de Corps et âme, vous dénoncez le désintéressement envers le secteur de la Défense, « sous le prétexte paresseux qu’on l’a confiée à des salariés. » Vous touchez là un point crucial. Il est certes possible de montrer les politiciens du doigt à cet égard, mais comment pouvons-nous, individuellement, contribuer à renverser cette tendance?

En prendre conscience déjà. C’est même l’essentiel. Dès lors qu’un citoyen considère que le soldat qui s’engage pour son pays n’est pas un fonctionnaire comme un autre et qu’il lui reconnait un rôle d’exception dans la société, il redonne lui-même du sens à l’action de ce soldat. Ce rôle d’exception est clair : nous lui confions de porter la force pour nous protéger d’une menace existentielle. « Existentiel », cela signifie que s’il n’est pas là, s’il n’assure pas cette mission, je n’« existe » peut-être plus c’est-à-dire que je n’ai plus de « consistance », « je ne suis plus ». Sans lui, je n’existe pas dans la société.

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Zelensky shows us what’s worth defending

On By Marc NadeauIn 1939, Battle of Monte Cassino, Hachette Book Group, History, Poland, Roger Moorhouse, Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, World War IILeave a comment
Author and historian Roger Moorhouse (source: Culture.pl)

Acclaimed author and historian Roger Moorhouse, whose Poland 1939 I had the pleasure of reviewing on this blog last weekend, accepted to answer my questions about Polish military history, the war of aggression against Ukraine and the leadership of President Volodymyr Zelensky. Below is the content of our exchange.

Mr. Moorhouse, thank you very much for taking the time to answer my questions, despite your busy schedule. While reading Poland 1939, I kept wondering if and what Western countries did to help the government of Warsaw in the crucial weeks and months leading to World War 2. Could you tell us more about that?

Not enough, is the short answer. There were military alliances signed with both the British and the French – the French one in May 1939, and commitments were made – specific in the French case, more vague in the British – to assist in the event of an invasion. The French committed to send “the bulk” of their forces across the Rhine on Day 15 of mobilization, and the British talked vaguely about sending RAF squadrons to Poland. Little of it, of course, came to pass once Germany actually invaded. The French made a half-hearted advance across the Rhine, and the RAF dropped leaflets over Germany politely asking that the Germans cease and desist. They then shifted the narrative from one of defending Poland to one of promising to restore an independent Poland at some time in the future. It was driven by circumstances, of course, but it was also morally rather cowardly.

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Putin is following Hitler’s blueprint

On By Marc NadeauIn Hachette Book Group, Poland, Roger Moorhouse, Russia, Ukraine, Vladimir Putin, World War II1 Comment

I started reading Poland 1939: The Outbreak of World War II by historian Roger Moorhouse last summer, with the intention of reviewing it on the 82nd anniversary of the tragic events that unfolded in September of that fateful year. But life caught up with me and the book remained unfinished on my desk for several months. That was until Vladimir Putin decided to invade Ukraine.

Let me start with an observation. Not much – not enough I should say – is written in English about Polish military history. I remember reading Adam Zamoyski’s Warsaw 1920 in 2012, when I first visited Poland. During that trip, I also visited the Field Cathedral of the Polish Army and the Warsaw Uprising Museum, both located in the capital city. Notwithstanding these contacts with Polish military history, I always have the image of Polish lancers attacking the mighty Wehrmacht in a useless charge.

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