“Good strategy might just be staying out of trouble” – Exclusive interview with Sir Lawrence Freedman

Sir Lawrence Freedman (credit: Boston Consulting Group)

Sir Lawrence Freedman is not only an internationally acclaimed author, but he is also the dean of British strategic studies and Emeritus Professor of War Studies at King’s College London. I have a boundless admiration for this institution and I hope to enlist in the near future to the online Master’s Degree in War Studies it offers.

Sir Lawrence generously accepted to answer a few questions for this blog and I am extremely grateful for that. Here is the content of our exchange.

Russia is a constant challenge because it feels itself at threat from the West and has taken a tough stance that creates an edginess.

My point was then that the withdrawal from Afghanistan, chaotic though it was, was unfortunately expected and the lesson (not to put substantial ground forces into a civil war) had been learned a decade earlier. Russia is a constant challenge because it feels itself at threat from the West and has taken a tough stance that creates an edginess, especially as it plays a disruptive role in European affairs. It poses a challenge that is serious but should be manageable as its underlying position if weak. China has been getting stronger for the past three decades year on year, although that growth may be stuttering now. It has turned itself into a great power, militarily as well as economically, and under Xi has taken a much more assertive stance on a whole range of issues. I believe this stance will turn out to be counter-productive, but it creates a risky and dynamic situation which could spark a wider confrontation (see answer to next question).

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“The chance to put the terrorists in their holes”

“Interpreters are the forgotten heroes who played a significant role in the war against terrorism.” Reading these words in Special Forces Interpreter: An Afghan on Operations with the Coalition (Pen & Sword) by Eddie Idrees reminded me of the frustration I felt late last summer when I heard that those Afghans who sacrificed so much to help the coalition forces involved in the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) during so many years were threatened by the withdrawal from Afghanistan decided by the Biden administration and followed by other countries like my own, Canada.

While I was keeping abreast of all developments happening in Kabul airport at the time, social media algorithms suggested I read a memoir from a courageous young man who took the fight to the enemy alongside American and British soldiers. In that moment, there was no doubt in my mind that I would review this book, if only to better understand the crucial role played by the interpreters in the “forever war”.

The author – who writes under a pseudonym for understandable reasons – summarizes that “it was the Afghan interpreters who provided information on cultural issues to avoid misunderstandings between the village, tribal leaders, Afghan forces and US forces. In this way they ultimately reduced casualties.”

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« Vladimir Poutine n’est pas un ennemi mortel pour l’Occident » – Entrevue exclusive avec Antoine Mariotti

Antoine Mariotti (source: France 24)

À la suite de ma recension de son livre La Honte de l’Occident – un exposé qui fait réfléchir, de par les nombreuses révélations qu’il contient et qui permettant de mieux comprendre l’état actuel de la politique internationale le journaliste de France 24 Antoine Mariotti a aimablement accepté de répondre à quelques questions pour ce blogue. C’est un livre qui se dévore avec une bonne tasse de thé, sous la plume d’un auteur de talent dont on souhaite qu’il nous offre d’autres plaisirs littéraires. Voici donc le contenu de notre échange.

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Monsieur Mariotti, l’un des aspects qui m’a le plus marqué dans La Honte de l’Occident est à l’effet que Moscou et Téhéran pourraient devenir des rivaux à moyen et long terme. Pourriez-vous nous en dire davantage à propos des sujets et intérêts sur les récifs desquels cette relation pourrait se détériorer?

Ce sont les deux parrains du pouvoir syrien. Ils ont endossé ce rôle parce qu’ils estiment qu’ils ont aussi à y gagner. Il va être intéressant de voir le partage des marchés économiques… certains auraient été promis aux deux. Par ailleurs, sur un sujet comme Israël (voisin de la Syrie), les positions russe et iraniennes sont radicalement opposées. Moscou est allié au pouvoir israélien alors que Téhéran est son ennemi juré. Tsahal intervient militairement régulièrement en Syrie contre des intérêts iraniens et avec le feu vert, actif ou passif, de la Russie qui gère une grande partie de l’espace aérien syrien.

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Barack Obama a pavé la voie à Vladimir Poutine en Crimée

20 août 2012. Derrière le podium de la salle de presse de la Maison Blanche, le président Barack Obama met en garde le régime syrien de Bachar el-Assad de ne pas franchir la ligne rouge que représente l’utilisation d’armes chimiques. Une admonestation dont le président syrien fera fi un an plus tard. On s’attend alors à ce que les Américains entre dans la danse et utilisent leur puissance militaire pour mettre le dirigeant récalcitrant au pas. Il n’en sera rien. Obama tergiverse. L’osmose fait défaut entre lui et son administration sur le dossier syrien. Traumatisé stratégiquement par les péripéties martiales de son prédécesseur, le patron « ne veut pas se retrouver dans la même situation que celle de George W. Bush en Irak […]. »

Devant lui, les Russes et leur président Vladimir Poutine veillent au grain. Pas question de se faire damer le pion pour le maître du Kremlin. Et pourquoi pas tirer avantage de la situation? À ce jeu, il est redoutable, surtout devant la faiblesse des Occidentaux qui peinent à articuler une position solide. Difficile de poser les jalons du changement de régime à Damas, puisque l’opposition est tout autant tétanisée par l’exil que par les divisions.

Diplomatiquement, d’abord, Moscou sauvera la face des Américains en annonçant le « désarmement chimique de son allié syrien ». Le repli décidé dans le Bureau Ovaleaura ensuite des répercussions majeures sur le plan militaire.

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Les Occidentaux ont poussé la Russie dans les bras de la Chine – Entrevue exclusive avec Vladimir Fédorovski, ancien conseiller de Mikhaïl Gorbatchev

Vladimir Fédorovski (source: Le Temps)

Je suis un grand amateur des livres de Vladimir Fédorovski. Par sa plume agréable et inspirée, cet auteur prolifique et ancien conseiller de Mikhaïl Gorbatchev fait pénétrer ses lectrices et ses lecteurs dans l’âme de l’histoire politique de la Russie. C’est d’ailleurs avec énormément de plaisir que j’ai lu et recensé l’éclairante biographie qu’il a récemment consacrée au dernier président de l’URSS – Le Roman vrai de Gorbatchev, publié chez Flammarion il y a quelques mois. Je m’attaquerai bientôt à sa biographie de Staline. Pour l’heure, voici le contenu de l’entretien téléphonique qu’il m’a accordé le 28 septembre dernier.

Monsieur Fédorovski, bonjour et merci infiniment de m’accorder un entretien. Je vous remercie pour votre œuvre et c’est toujours un très agréable plaisir de vous lire. Sans plus tarder, quelle est votre lecture des relations actuelles entre l’Occident et la Russie?

Il y a une affinité extraordinaire entre l’Occident et la Russie. Je n’accepte pas cette bêtise qu’est la diabolisation. Nous vivons dans un climat pire que celui de la Guerre froide. Sous la dictature du politiquement correct, les médias mentent et croient en leurs mensonges. Parce que nous avons besoin d’un adversaire. C’est inculte. Comme l’affirmait l’ancien ministre français des affaires étrangères, Hubert Védrine, c’est une fatigue intellectuelle. Par rapport à Vladimir Poutine, mon approche est gaullienne. Les chefs d’État comme Vladimir Poutine et Justin Trudeau passeront. Les intérêts nationaux et la paix, de leur côté, demeureront.

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Vladimir Putin, campaign manager

A few years ago, I was captivated by Peter Schweizer’s book Reagan’s War: The Epic Story of His Forty-Year Struggle and Final Triumph Over Communism. That fascinating book detailed how the 40th President of the United States used the economic weaknesses of the USSR to bring it on its knees, notably with the help of the Saudis regarding the oil price and the military build-up with which Moscow could not compete with Washington.

Turns out that, while the USSR crumbled, a young KGB lieutenant colonel named Vladimir Putin took good note.  In a recent interview with a former Soviet official, my interlocutor spoke to me about the Russian President’s love of judo – his favorite sport – and the transposition of its techniques in politics. The master of the Kremlin’s dealings in world affairs is a good illustration of his abilities to take advantage of his opponents’ weight to knock them down.

Nowhere is this ability more evident than in the pages of British journalist Luke Harding’s book Shadow State: Murder, Mayhem, and Russia’s Remaking of the West (Harper). In a real page-turner, the author details how the Russian government and its entities are influencing the West’s political life. For example, using Novichok as a calling card in attempting to neutralize Sergei Skripal, a former Russian intelligence officer who betrayed the GRU (The Main Directorate of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation). Or shabby dealings using banks allegedly to bail out influential people – allegedly like former US President Donald Trump. Moscow is determined to go to any lengths “[…] to return to a nineteenth-century model of great-power politics and to disrupt the ideals-based international order established after the Second World War […].”

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Exclusive interview with an avid reader, Premier of Alberta Jason Kenney

Premier of Alberta Jason Kenney, pictured in front of his bookshelves. (source: Alberta Politics)

I have known the Premier of Alberta, Jason Kenney, for almost 20 years and I’m proud to count him as a friend. As well as enjoying pancakes at the traditional breakfast he traditionally organized as federal Member of Parliament, I fondly remember eating poutine with him when my family and I participated in the Calgary Stampede in 2012. If there’s one thing we invariably always talk about (other than politics of course), it is books. He’s a consummate avid reader, a fellow bookworm.

Like every elected official, the Premier is fighting Covid-19 and its dire consequences in his home province of Alberta, making headlines. These are tough times. But I won’t get into that. Don’t expect anything controversial here. This is about books, which I found to be a source of solace in these difficult months. I was therefore extremely pleased when Mr. Kenney accepted to take a few moments within his brutal schedule to respond to a few questions for this blog.

I hope you enjoy this simple yet insightful exchange.

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Premier Kenney, I remember, when you were a federal cabinet Minister, those amazing pictures of boxes from a famous Canadian bookstore filled with books you received. Have your reading habits changed since you have become Premier of Alberta two years ago?

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Countdown bin Laden

Twenty years ago this morning, our hearts crumbled simultaneously with New York’s Twin Towers. Osama bin Laden orchestrated an attack that would scar the face of the Earth and change history forever. After the heartless attacks that left 2977 people dead and countless families grieving, it was inevitable that the terrorist leader would be brought to face justice.

In his new book, Fox News Sunday anchor Chris Wallace offers the gripping story of this historic manhunt and the commendable sacrifices made by those who planned and executed it over a period of 9 months.

In the same manner he wrote his authoritative Countdown 1945, the renowned journalist (with Mitch Weiss) details the nitty-gritty of what will certainly be remembered as one of the most famous and consequential special operation in the history of warfare in Countdown bin Laden: The Untold Story of the 247-Day Hunt to Bring the Mastermind of 9/11 to Justice. Tremendous sacrifices were consented by these intelligence officials who sacrificed their family lives. SEAL Team 6 operators faced their own mortality as they were ordered to descend in the Devil’s Den at the Abbottabad compound where bin Laden had taken refuge between 2005 and May 1st, 2011.

More than the military aspects of the mission to bring back OBL dead or alive, what impressed me most in this book was the decision-making process of the operation. It is easy to associate the warlord tag to President George W. Bush for his decision to launch a war against Al Qaida in Afghanistan and Saddam Hussein in Iraq. His successor, Barack Obama, appears as a more dovish character, at least in the public’s perception.

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Wellington took care of his soldiers

A few months ago, I reviewed the very insightful book Wellington’s Command by G. E. Jaycock. Being interested in anything related to the Iron Duke, it was therefore natural for me to read S. P. G. Ward’s Wellington’s Headquarters: The Command and Administration of the British Army during the Peninsular War (Pen & Sword).

While the objective of the author was to detail and explain the functioning of the Peninsular Army and give a portrait of the overall machinery of war, the most interesting aspect of the book is the portrait of the warlord. Wellington, it is a known fact, was a micromanager. For instance, the author explains that “[…] he was his own Director of Military Intelligence”. One doesn’t need to be a psychologist to understand that he must have been quite a difficult character to deal with – like most famous personalities in history. About the interrogation of prisoners of war, he reduced one of his subordinates, Stewart, to tears because the latter wrongfully thought it fell within the province of his responsibilities.

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In Afghanistan “with bayonet and kukri”

HRH Prince Harry (right) pictured while he was deployed with Gurkha soldiers in Afghanistan (source: Nepal News Blog)

Having devoured General Sir Peter Duffell’s book The Gurkha Odyssey (which I reviewed here recently) and being interested in anything related to these élite and legendary soldiers, I was extremely worried about the evacuation of the 100 Nepalese Gurkhas who had been tasked with guarding the Canadian embassy in Kabul. I was relieved when I heard that they had been safely taken away from the country.

Nonetheless, the whole episode reminded me of the chapter Sir Peter devoted to the Gurkhas contribution to Britain’s fight in Afghanistan – during the 1st Afghan War (1839-1842), the Second Afghan War (1878-1880), the Third Afghan War (1919) and the Fourth Afghan War (2001-2021). Since 2001, the Gurkhas took part in no less than 24 deployments!

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